Betting Lines
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +11 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -8.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.6 (-22.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -4.8 (+6.2) | 148.1 (-11.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -5.2 (+5.8) | 146.2 (-9.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -6.1 (+4.9) | 147.0 (-10.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -4.2 (+6.8) | 146.5 (-9.5) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-7 |
| Away | 9-7 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.0 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#220) | -4.7 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#97) | -0.19 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#105) | -0.45 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#45) | 0.522 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 26.1% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 23.7% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 38.5% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 14.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.5% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 12.0% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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