Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | BRAD -100000 PRIN +4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +24 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -1.5 (+22.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -1.1 (+22.9) | 137.0 (+15.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -1.2 (+22.8) | 135.1 (+16.9) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -1.2 (+22.8) | 136.7 (+15.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -1.9 (+22.1) | 137.6 (+14.4) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 9-20 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 5-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 8-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#218) | -3.6 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#283) | 0.20 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.91 (#280) | 0.50 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#262) | 0.516 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 36.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 43.8% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 33.3% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.9% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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