Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -5.5 Home covered |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +11 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | NKU -16.1 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NKU -10.0 (+1.0) | 148.0 (+5.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NKU -12.8 (-1.8) | 148.1 (+4.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NKU -13.3 (-2.3) | 147.7 (+5.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NKU -12.6 (-1.6) | 145.3 (+7.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2023 | NKU 85 – 75 EKU |
| Dec 15, 2022 | NKU 64 – 61 EKU |
| Dec 19, 2021 | EKU 81 – 68 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-5 | 8-7 |
| Away | 7-8 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 83.1 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#152) | -8.9 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#140) | -2.53 (#335) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#153) | -3.86 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#85) | 0.472 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 13.0% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.0% | 57.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 63.5% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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