Bradley
Braves
77
–
87
FINAL
Neutral
Terry's Chocolate ESPN Events Invitational
UC San Diego
Tritons
Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +10 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSD -9.1 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (+18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -2.7 (-7.3) | 141.1 (+22.9) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -3.4 (-6.6) | 140.5 (+23.5) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -3.8 (-6.2) | 140.4 (+23.6) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -2.1 (-7.9) | 141.7 (+22.3) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 12-8 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#218) | 7.0 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#283) | 2.68 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.91 (#280) | 4.54 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#262) | 0.759 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 52.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 61.4% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 33.3% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.9% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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