Betting Lines
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +41 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -24.5 (+16.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.2 (-24.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -23.0 (+18.0) | 155.7 (-22.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -19.1 (+21.9) | 150.1 (-17.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -22.5 (+18.5) | 151.3 (-18.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -24.1 (+16.9) | 154.7 (-21.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 4-14 |
| Home | 15-2 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.3 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 15.3 (#19) | -3.0 (#229) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.64 (#26) | -1.13 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.25 (#19) | -1.80 (#275) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#59) | 0.365 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 43.6 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.81 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 37.0% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.