Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | BOIS +235 NCSU -290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BOIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +11 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | NCSU -7.9 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -1.4 (-9.6) | 146.3 (+4.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -2.2 (-8.8) | 145.2 (+5.8) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -1.8 (-9.2) | 146.6 (+4.4) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -1.0 (-10.0) | 148.9 (+2.1) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BOIS | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 6-5 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#66) | 15.7 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#101) | 1.21 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#99) | 2.15 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#48) | 0.590 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BOIS | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 51.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 41.5% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 61.6% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 32.0% | 32.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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