Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | MCN -485 MTSU +370 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +10 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | MCN -7.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.6 (-25.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -8.0 (+2.0) | 144.5 (-10.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -7.6 (+2.4) | 147.7 (-13.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -7.3 (+2.7) | 149.6 (-15.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -8.1 (+1.9) | 151.2 (-17.2) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MCN | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 19-3 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-0 | 11-4 |
| Away | 9-5 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#62) | 1.5 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#27) | 1.14 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.44 (#17) | 1.37 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.678 (#13) | 0.626 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MCN | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 29.3 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 42.9% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.8% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 49.1% | 77.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.9% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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