Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Under |
| Money | UNCA -250 TNST +205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +2 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCA -4.8 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.2 (-12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -4.0 (-6.0) | 142.9 (+5.1) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -4.1 (-6.1) | 147.3 (+0.7) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -4.3 (-6.3) | 148.8 (-0.8) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -3.9 (-5.9) | 149.3 (-1.3) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2024 | UNCA 92 – 74 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 15-5 |
| Home | 8-7 | 10-2 |
| Away | 4-9 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#221) | -1.1 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#256) | -0.73 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#257) | -0.93 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.364 (#334) | 0.552 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 36.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 41.9% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 31.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 58.3% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 42.7% |
Game Analysis
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