Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | TNST +100 UNCA -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +18 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | TNST -2.0 (-20.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -0.1 (-18.1) | 155.6 (+10.4) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -1.2 (-19.2) | 153.5 (+12.5) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -2.4 (-20.4) | 153.0 (+13.0) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -1.1 (-19.1) | 156.4 (+9.6) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2025 | TNST 75 – 73 UNCA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-5 |
| Home | 12-3 | 13-1 |
| Away | 4-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 79.5 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#304) | -4.0 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.61 (#345) | 0.18 (#155) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.87 (#345) | 0.45 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.340 (#355) | 0.501 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 14.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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