Betting Lines
| O/U | 166.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +17 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -30.9 (-13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.5 (-2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -21.9 (-4.9) | 157.8 (+3.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -24.5 (-7.5) | 152.5 (+8.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -29.0 (-12.0) | 153.2 (+7.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -29.5 (-12.5) | 154.3 (+6.7) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-7 |
| Home | 15-3 | 12-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.1 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 80.8 |
| Massey | 12.5 (#34) | -12.3 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.09 (#10) | -3.51 (#358) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.74 (#11) | -5.54 (#359) |
| RPI | 0.644 (#24) | 0.341 (#347) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.2% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.78 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.5% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 62.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 33.1% |
Game Analysis
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