Betting Lines
| Spread | CP -1.5 Home covered |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +6 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | CP -2.5 (+8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (+30.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CP -1.2 (+7.2) | 145.9 (+34.1) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CP -2.1 (+8.1) | 143.2 (+36.8) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CP -2.7 (+8.7) | 144.6 (+35.4) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CP -0.4 (+6.4) | 146.1 (+33.9) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | CP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 10-10 |
| Home | 9-7 | 8-6 |
| Away | 1-13 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 85.3 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#279) | 2.4 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.97 (#317) | 1.30 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.25 (#293) | 1.29 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#263) | 0.663 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | CP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.8% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.0% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 8.9% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 64.3% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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