I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be. "Not Fade Away"-The Rolling Stones
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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20–16 on winners spread MAE 10.9 36 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
North Dakota @ Western Illinois +2.5 133.1 46% 78–69 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Marshall +10.7 139.1 82% 60–69 ✓
Murray State @ Middle Tennessee -4.8 152.3 38% 87–90 ✗
Akron @ Evansville -11.0 151.1 18% 97–59 ✓
Winthrop @ Jackson State -9.5 156.7 17% 80–62 ✓
Utah State @ Davidson +0.5 134.2 52% 94–60 ✗
Toledo @ Troy +5.2 158.2 76% 75–68 ✗
Rhode Island @ Towson -4.5 132.6 32% 55–62 ✗
Stony Brook @ Pacific -0.8 142.0 46% 58–86 ✗
Bucknell @ Bowling Green +12.8 143.1 88% 66–71 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Fairleigh Dickinson +3.5 150.9 57% 70–65 ✗
Massachusetts @ Oregon State -1.6 146.3 42% 73–65 ✓
Rutgers @ Tennessee +14.0 136.6 89% 60–85 ✓
Saint Francis @ Belmont +23.9 145.8 91% 57–94 ✓
UAB @ Southern Illinois -0.3 154.1 52% 81–73 ✓
Liberty @ Vermont +1.9 154.8 56% 79–73 ✗
Jacksonville @ Bethune-Cookman +1.3 147.4 62% 69–64 ✗
Creighton @ Baylor +1.4 151.9 49% 74–81 ✓
Seton Hall @ NC State +8.7 137.4 77% 85–74 ✗
VMI @ Buffalo +16.1 148.2 89% 70–78 ✓
Green Bay @ Iona +4.3 150.0 70% 80–75 ✗
Grambling @ UC Riverside +5.6 143.3 76% 74–83 ✓
Notre Dame @ Kansas +6.2 143.0 73% 61–71 ✓
William & Mary @ UTEP -7.5 137.3 24% 74–63 ✓
Oakland @ Lamar +6.6 145.8 75% 83–68 ✗
Iowa State @ St. John's +0.7 155.0 56% 83–82 ✗
Rice @ Kennesaw State +5.7 151.6 71% 84–89 ✓
Temple @ UC San Diego +4.4 146.8 67% 76–91 ✓
USC @ Boise State -1.1 152.3 43% 70–67 ✓
George Washington @ Middle Tennessee -7.0 149.4 23% 92–79 ✓
Charleston @ Evansville -1.7 141.7 38% 78–59 ✓
Syracuse @ Houston -0.3 124.0 47% 74–78 ✗
George Mason @ Ohio -7.5 137.5 23% 92–69 ✓
Siena @ Holy Cross -3.0 133.7 32% 73–69 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Youngstown State -0.9 151.7 48% 61–67 ✗
Elon @ App State +4.0 147.3 66% 88–53 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.