In North Carolina way back in the hills, there lived my pappy and he had him a still. "White Lightning" - The Big Bopper
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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34–14 on winners spread MAE 10.4 48 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Incarnate Word @ High Point +12.5 148.8 84% 80–91 ✓
Morehead State @ UL Monroe -1.9 146.8 40% 83–80 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ North Dakota -4.6 136.9 32% 75–58 ✓
VMI @ Stetson +4.1 142.1 56% 80–99 ✓
Ball State @ Indiana State +12.7 135.7 81% 52–70 ✓
Milwaukee @ Wichita State +22.1 152.5 89% 58–75 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Richmond +24.6 153.4 91% 67–102 ✓
Coppin State @ VCU +31.1 144.6 91% 58–101 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Portland +0.2 149.0 55% 86–80 ✗
North Florida @ Southern Miss +7.0 152.1 74% 83–92 ✓
UT Arlington @ Weber State +4.0 140.7 69% 74–73 ✗
Northern Iowa @ UC Irvine -2.3 128.1 31% 70–69 ✓
Clemson @ Georgia +0.2 149.7 51% 97–94 ✗
Alabama State @ SIU Edwardsville -1.6 134.2 45% 68–83 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Miami (OH) +22.7 150.3 90% 84–111 ✓
Binghamton @ Canisius +5.1 133.1 49% 66–75 ✓
Delaware State @ Miami +31.9 139.4 91% 41–97 ✓
South Carolina State @ South Dakota +15.3 147.7 88% 81–82 ✓
Old Dominion @ Drexel +3.6 142.9 67% 71–75 ✓
Alcorn State @ Oklahoma +25.0 157.4 91% 53–72 ✓
West Georgia @ Georgia Tech +9.1 133.8 77% 66–82 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Central Arkansas -7.7 149.6 23% 65–92 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Northern Colorado +7.3 155.1 81% 93–97 ✓
Brown @ Maine +6.2 129.2 63% 58–53 ✗
Longwood @ Columbia +12.6 143.7 86% 70–95 ✓
Butler @ Virginia -0.3 150.3 53% 80–73 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ North Florida -1.0 152.4 38% 85–82 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Delaware -1.6 151.6 47% 79–59 ✓
Robert Morris @ Monmouth +6.3 142.0 76% 70–71 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Western Michigan +6.1 145.0 68% 60–83 ✓
West Virginia @ Xavier -3.9 132.5 35% 68–78 ✗
Howard @ Duke +34.1 143.1 90% 56–93 ✓
Lamar @ Montana +6.6 148.7 72% 68–63 ✗
UL Monroe @ East Tennessee State +13.8 141.5 85% 55–97 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Portland +4.0 144.1 59% 76–66 ✗
Norfolk State @ Wyoming +17.4 132.1 86% 67–75 ✓
South Carolina @ Northwestern +6.5 145.6 73% 77–79 ✓
Queens University @ Furman +1.7 141.7 50% 79–90 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Air Force +4.9 152.7 68% 85–98 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Pittsburgh +12.4 135.4 86% 83–75 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ Illinois State +1.2 136.9 54% 42–94 ✓
McNeese @ George Washington +8.1 151.1 80% 92–86 ✗
UT Martin @ Southern Miss -2.5 144.4 32% 60–70 ✗
Yale @ Charleston -10.4 149.2 17% 74–63 ✓
Youngstown State @ UNC Greensboro -7.8 153.2 23% 62–68 ✗
Bryant @ UConn +29.6 139.3 91% 49–72 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ DePaul +17.7 145.2 87% 75–95 ✓
Tulane @ Boston College +7.0 129.0 77% 93–90 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.