Betting Lines
| Spread | WYO -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | WYO -2500 NORF +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WYO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WYO +8 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | WYO -15.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.6 (+11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WYO -11.1 (-3.1) | 134.8 (+7.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WYO -15.8 (-7.8) | 134.2 (+7.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WYO -17.4 (-9.4) | 132.1 (+9.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WYO -15.5 (-7.5) | 133.3 (+8.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WYO | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-6 |
| Home | 14-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#87) | -3.2 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#102) | -1.69 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.03 (#91) | -2.48 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#107) | 0.309 (#359) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WYO | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 43.5 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.8 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 42.4% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 44.4% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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