Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCO -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | PORT +155 UNCO -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PORT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCO +6 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCO -3.9 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCO -3.4 (-2.6) | 149.5 (+16.5) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PORT -0.8 (-6.8) | 146.5 (+19.5) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PORT -0.2 (-6.2) | 149.0 (+17.0) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PORT -1.5 (-7.5) | 151.2 (+14.8) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PORT | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-6 | 11-3 |
| Away | 1-12 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 80.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 78.1 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#276) | 3.5 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#93) | -0.18 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#102) | 1.57 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#112) | 0.462 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PORT | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 24.4% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 31.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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