Betting Lines
| Spread | VMI -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | STET +120 VMI -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STET win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STET +19 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | STET -4.7 (+14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (+34.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STET -3.2 (+15.8) | 147.3 (+31.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STET -3.9 (+15.1) | 140.9 (+38.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STET -4.1 (+14.9) | 142.1 (+36.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STET -3.7 (+15.3) | 142.5 (+36.5) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STET | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 1-17 |
| Home | 9-5 | 5-9 |
| Away | 2-14 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L17 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.9 | 83.2 |
| Massey | -12.4 (#343) | -10.9 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#251) | -1.30 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#265) | -1.89 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#254) | 0.451 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STET | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.5% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.0% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 22.2% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 63.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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