Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | DEL +290 SIU -380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +20 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | SIU -3.9 (-16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.2 (-32.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -1.1 (-18.9) | 158.3 (-20.3) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -1.6 (-18.4) | 155.3 (-17.3) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -1.6 (-18.4) | 151.6 (-13.6) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEL -0.1 (-20.1) | 154.8 (-16.8) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEL | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 10-10 |
| Home | 5-10 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-10 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#199) | 2.3 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#249) | -0.80 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#252) | -0.89 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#276) | 0.378 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEL | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 54.4% |
| 3PT% | 43.1% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 57.5% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 12.0% |
| DRB% | 64.8% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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