Betting Lines
| Spread | M-OH -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | M-OH -6000 UAPB +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | M-OH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | M-OH +27 | 195 | Won |
| Massey | M-OH -23.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.8 (+35.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | M-OH -19.2 (+7.8) | 150.3 (+44.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | M-OH -17.3 (+9.7) | 152.1 (+42.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | M-OH -22.7 (+4.3) | 150.3 (+44.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | M-OH -24.7 (+2.3) | 151.1 (+43.9) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | M-OH | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-2 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 18-0 | 10-8 |
| Home | 16-0 | 7-4 |
| Away | 14-0 | 6-14 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.3 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 81.9 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#116) | -13.9 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#36) | -1.14 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.31 (#39) | -1.47 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.616 (#52) | 0.506 (#180) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | M-OH | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 36.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 27.4% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 42.1% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 58.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 78.6% | 61.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 32.3% |
Game Analysis
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