Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | ILST -1000 CCU +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +52 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | CCU -0.3 (+52.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -1.2 (+50.8) | 141.0 (-5.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | ILST -3.1 (+48.9) | 139.9 (-3.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | ILST -1.8 (+50.2) | 136.0 (+0.0) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -1.2 (+50.8) | 136.9 (-0.9) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 7-7 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#204) | 4.4 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#222) | -0.47 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#243) | -0.75 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#222) | 0.396 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.4% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 79.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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