Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -36.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +23 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -32.2 (-9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (-20.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -30.5 (-7.5) | 139.6 (-18.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | CONN -24.4 (-1.4) | 136.2 (-15.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | CONN -25.2 (-2.2) | 136.9 (-15.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -29.6 (-6.6) | 139.3 (-18.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-6 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 5-11 |
| Home | 15-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 9-3 | 1-17 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 63.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 16.0 (#16) | -10.0 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.29 (#32) | -1.65 (#302) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.53 (#34) | -2.75 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.646 (#29) | 0.442 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.7% | 36.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 24.1% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.96 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.1% | 42.0% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.2% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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