Betting Lines
| Spread | RICH -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | RICH -7500 GWEB +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RICH +35 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | RICH -24.6 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICH -19.3 (+15.7) | 152.6 (+16.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RICH -19.7 (+15.3) | 151.5 (+17.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RICH -24.6 (+10.4) | 153.4 (+15.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RICH -26.1 (+8.9) | 151.4 (+17.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICH | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 4-29 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 1-15 |
| Home | 11-7 | 3-10 |
| Away | 3-8 | 0-16 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 86.7 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#105) | -13.8 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#63) | -1.93 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#77) | -3.06 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.623 (#44) | 0.371 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICH | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 42.2% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 60.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.3% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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