Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -43.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +37 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -42.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (+3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -27.6 (+9.4) | 147.1 (+1.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -25.1 (+11.9) | 143.8 (+5.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -34.1 (+2.9) | 143.1 (+5.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -33.9 (+3.1) | 144.8 (+4.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-3 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 11-3 |
| Home | 15-0 | 11-4 |
| Away | 10-1 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 28.4 (#1) | -7.9 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.77 (#11) | -1.49 (#295) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.16 (#18) | -2.25 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.636 (#36) | 0.369 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.0% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 44.2 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.10 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.4% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 39.3% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 33.2% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.0% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.2% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.