Betting Lines
| Spread | COLU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | COLU -170 LONG +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLU +25 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | COLU -15.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (+11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLU -9.1 (+15.9) | 145.6 (+19.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLU -11.6 (+13.4) | 143.1 (+21.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLU -12.6 (+12.4) | 143.7 (+21.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLU -11.3 (+13.7) | 145.9 (+19.1) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLU | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-12 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 8-8 |
| Home | 9-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#142) | -7.2 (#288) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#55) | -1.31 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#78) | -1.17 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#99) | 0.389 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLU | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 23.9% |
| REB / G | 42.2 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 42.9% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 40.0% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 40.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 23.6% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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