Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | MONT -210 LAM +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAM +5 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | MONT -6.6 (-11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.3 (-28.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -3.3 (-8.3) | 147.0 (-16.0) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -5.6 (-10.6) | 147.0 (-16.0) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -6.6 (-11.6) | 148.7 (-17.7) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -5.2 (-10.2) | 149.7 (-18.7) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONT | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-15 |
| Home | 11-6 | 7-8 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#115) | 3.3 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#107) | -0.59 (#224) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.73 (#110) | -1.41 (#259) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#47) | 0.395 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONT | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.4% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.4% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 21.8% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 14.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.7% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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