Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -34.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +56 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -33.3 (+22.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (-5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -24.7 (+31.3) | 141.5 (-3.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -25.1 (+30.9) | 139.1 (-1.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -31.9 (+24.1) | 139.4 (-1.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -30.1 (+25.9) | 138.3 (-0.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 2-12 |
| Home | 15-3 | 5-7 |
| Away | 8-2 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 59.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 14.2 (#24) | -12.9 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#91) | -2.45 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#94) | -3.97 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#92) | 0.335 (#350) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.2% | 34.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.92 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 38.7% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 60.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.