Betting Lines
| Spread | EWU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | CARK +190 EWU -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CARK +27 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | EWU -11.5 (+38.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.7 (-1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EWU -6.9 (+33.9) | 146.1 (+10.9) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EWU -7.7 (+34.7) | 146.6 (+10.4) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | EWU -7.7 (+34.7) | 149.6 (+7.4) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EWU -7.5 (+34.5) | 149.5 (+7.5) | 25% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-1 | 8-4 |
| Away | 6-10 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 79.2 |
| Massey | -15.3 (#358) | 2.4 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.23 (#352) | -0.70 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.29 (#358) | -0.61 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#298) | 0.542 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.1% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 20.7% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 6.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.0% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 19.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 59.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.7% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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