Betting Lines
| Spread | MONM -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | MONM -155 RMU +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +1 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | MONM -10.4 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.6 (-12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONM -2.1 (-1.1) | 141.1 (-0.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONM -5.4 (-4.4) | 142.1 (-1.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONM -6.3 (-5.3) | 142.0 (-1.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONM -5.3 (-4.3) | 141.3 (-0.3) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONM | RMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-4 | 14-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#152) | -3.2 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#313) | 1.27 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.07 (#320) | 1.83 (#103) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#262) | 0.656 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONM | RMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 23.7% | 25.9% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 38.1% |
| FT Rate | 34.2% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 62.8% | 62.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.7% | 43.4% |
Game Analysis
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