Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | ETSU -5000 ULM +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +42 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -16.3 (+25.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (+2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -14.0 (+28.0) | 141.9 (+10.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -12.9 (+29.1) | 140.9 (+11.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -13.8 (+28.2) | 141.5 (+10.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -15.2 (+26.8) | 141.7 (+10.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 1-17 |
| Home | 13-4 | 3-10 |
| Away | 8-6 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 85.4 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#170) | -9.7 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#159) | -2.98 (#344) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#173) | -4.93 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#231) | 0.249 (#364) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 20.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.4% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 63.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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