Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | HPU -1000 UIW +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +11 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -13.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -15.5 (-4.5) | 149.5 (+21.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -12.2 (-1.2) | 147.9 (+23.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -12.5 (-1.5) | 148.8 (+22.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -10.4 (+0.6) | 148.5 (+22.5) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-5 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 7-15 |
| Home | 17-1 | 9-6 |
| Away | 7-2 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#53) | -3.5 (#236) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#100) | -0.64 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#117) | -0.95 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#89) | 0.507 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 2.10 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 11.7% | 11.8% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 57.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.0% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 62.2% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.9% | 37.7% |
Game Analysis
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