Betting Lines
| Spread | WMU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | WMU -120 MSM +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WMU +23 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | WMU -7.5 (+15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (-8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WMU -4.3 (+18.7) | 145.8 (-2.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WMU -6.0 (+17.0) | 143.2 (-0.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WMU -6.1 (+16.9) | 145.0 (-2.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WMU -8.1 (+14.9) | 146.3 (-3.3) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WMU | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 11-9 |
| Home | 7-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-13 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.1 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#252) | -6.0 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#258) | -1.99 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#251) | -3.61 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#274) | 0.426 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WMU | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 25.0% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 36.3% |
Game Analysis
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