Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -32.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | VCU -100000 COPP +4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +43 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -34.2 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (+10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -27.0 (+16.0) | 146.3 (+12.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -23.8 (+19.2) | 143.1 (+15.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -31.1 (+11.9) | 144.6 (+14.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -29.7 (+13.3) | 144.6 (+14.4) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-8 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 3-6 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 64.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 81.0 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#55) | -18.6 (#362) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#191) | -2.90 (#343) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#178) | -4.42 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#152) | 0.340 (#346) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 36.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 26.2% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 41.2% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 61.7% | 61.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.5% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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