Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | FUR -450 QUC +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +11 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | FUR -1.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (+22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -2.5 (+8.5) | 143.7 (+25.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -0.8 (+10.2) | 141.1 (+27.9) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -1.7 (+9.3) | 141.7 (+27.3) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -1.3 (+9.7) | 142.7 (+26.3) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FUR | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-5 | 12-2 |
| Away | 7-5 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 84.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 83.8 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#259) | -0.3 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#298) | -1.25 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.09 (#289) | -1.73 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#196) | 0.414 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FUR | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 25.0% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 16.6% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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