Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | BOIS N/A USC -205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BOIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +3 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | USC -6.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.7 (-26.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -1.4 (-1.6) | 156.7 (-19.7) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -1.0 (-2.0) | 150.4 (-13.4) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -1.1 (-1.9) | 152.3 (-15.3) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -1.0 (-2.0) | 152.9 (-15.9) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BOIS | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 7-13 |
| Home | 12-4 | 9-7 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 78.4 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#76) | 13.3 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#64) | 2.75 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.56 (#65) | 3.38 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.647 (#27) | 0.704 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BOIS | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 43.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 2.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 12.7% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 36.7% | 39.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 42.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 63.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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