Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | JKST +425 WIN -650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JKST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +18 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | WIN -25.1 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.5 (-27.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -11.4 (-6.6) | 160.8 (-18.8) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -8.2 (-9.8) | 158.9 (-16.9) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -9.5 (-8.5) | 156.7 (-14.7) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -9.7 (-8.3) | 158.4 (-16.4) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JKST | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-3 |
| Home | 7-3 | 13-1 |
| Away | 4-15 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.8 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -21.7 (#365) | 9.8 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#290) | 0.11 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.23 (#291) | 0.26 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#268) | 0.533 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JKST | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.6% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.58 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.4% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 12.1% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 62.3% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 55.8% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.2% | 32.2% |
Game Analysis
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