Betting Lines
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +9 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -7.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -7.3 (+1.7) | 143.0 (+14.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -5.0 (+4.0) | 142.7 (+14.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -5.6 (+3.4) | 143.3 (+13.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -4.9 (+4.1) | 143.0 (+14.0) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-7 | 7-5 |
| Away | 3-15 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#220) | -3.5 (#233) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#171) | 0.42 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#137) | 0.43 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#156) | 0.552 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 24.3% | 23.6% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 31.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 60.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 33.3% |
Game Analysis
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