We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
SRC Arena · November 24, 2025
Betting Lines
O/U 143.5 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total UCR win
Actual UCR +9 157 Won
Massey UCR -7.3 (+1.7)
Massey Totals 149.8 (+7.2)
Bradley-Terry 73%
Weighted B-T 90%
Efficiency Plus ML UCR -7.3 (+1.7) 143.0 (+14.0) 77%
Baseline Tuned ML UCR -5.0 (+4.0) 142.7 (+14.3) 71%
Baseline ML UCR -5.6 (+3.4) 143.3 (+13.7) 76%
Baseline Plus ML UCR -4.9 (+4.1) 143.0 (+14.0) 71%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UCR GRAM
Overall 10-22 14-19
Conference 5-15 7-11
Home 7-7 7-5
Away 3-15 4-13
Neutral 0-0 3-1
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 71.6 69.0
Avg Pts Against 79.1 71.3
Massey -2.5 (#220) -3.5 (#233)
Bradley-Terry 0.13 (#171) 0.42 (#154)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.99 (#137) 0.43 (#156)
RPI 0.521 (#156) 0.552 (#115)
Shooting & Four Factors UCR GRAM
FG% 46.8% 45.1%
3PT% 36.8% 34.9%
REB / G 35.2 27.0
OREB / G 7.8 8.2
AST / TO 0.71 0.62
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.2% 50.8%
TOV% 24.3% 23.6%
ORB% 25.7% 26.6%
FT Rate 27.8% 31.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.5% 54.3%
Opp TOV% 13.9% 21.8%
DRB% 67.8% 60.3%
Opp FT Rate 18.3% 33.3%

Game Analysis

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