Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
| Money | SIU +120 UAB -142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +8 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | UAB -0.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.4 (-12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -1.5 (-6.5) | 159.0 (-5.0) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -1.2 (-6.8) | 153.5 (+0.5) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -0.3 (-7.7) | 154.1 (-0.1) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -1.8 (-6.2) | 157.3 (-3.3) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-6 | 8-9 |
| Away | 7-8 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 78.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#99) | 5.8 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#196) | 0.44 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#187) | 0.87 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#271) | 0.555 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.6% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 25.4% | 25.6% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 41.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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