Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -26.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | OHIO N/A GMU -50000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OHIO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +23 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -12.4 (-10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (+15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -9.8 (-13.2) | 139.5 (+21.5) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -7.0 (-16.0) | 138.1 (+22.9) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -7.5 (-15.5) | 137.5 (+23.5) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -7.6 (-15.4) | 139.8 (+21.2) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OHIO | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-6 | 17-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.0 | 68.0 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#258) | 7.3 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#278) | 1.93 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.41 (#260) | 2.71 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#230) | 0.604 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OHIO | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 25.7% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 40.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.5% | 41.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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