Betting Lines
| Spread | PAC -33.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | PAC -100000 STBK +10000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PAC +28 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | STBK -2.6 (+30.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PAC -1.1 (+26.9) | 138.3 (+5.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STBK -0.1 (+28.1) | 140.3 (+3.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STBK -0.8 (+28.8) | 142.0 (+2.0) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STBK -0.0 (+28.0) | 140.9 (+3.1) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-3 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#186) | 1.9 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#133) | -0.03 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#95) | -0.00 (#180) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#209) | 0.471 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.