Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | MRSH -1000 MERC +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +9 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -12.3 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (-14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -11.2 (-2.2) | 139.6 (-10.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -9.7 (-0.7) | 139.8 (-10.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -10.7 (-1.7) | 139.1 (-10.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -10.4 (-1.4) | 139.2 (-10.2) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 6-8 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#111) | -1.7 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#40) | -0.13 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.94 (#48) | -0.54 (#203) |
| RPI | 0.623 (#41) | 0.494 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.5% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.5% | 47.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.