Middle Tennessee
Blue Raiders
79
–
92
FINAL
Neutral
Cayman Islands Classic
George Washington
Revolutionaries
Betting Lines
| Spread | GW -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | MTSU +425 GW -575 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GW +13 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | GW -12.9 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (+15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GW -9.0 (-4.0) | 148.5 (+22.5) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GW -7.0 (-6.0) | 148.5 (+22.5) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GW -7.0 (-6.0) | 149.4 (+21.6) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GW -7.6 (-5.4) | 149.9 (+21.1) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | GW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-4 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#163) | 13.5 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#71) | 1.39 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#84) | 2.17 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.654 (#22) | 0.553 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | GW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 51.0% |
| 3PT% | 27.0% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 42.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 59.1% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 40.1% |
| FT Rate | 14.6% | 36.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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