Betting Lines
| Spread | ETAM -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | FDU +1500 ETAM -4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETAM +5 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | FDU -4.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.4 (-26.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FDU -3.2 (-8.2) | 145.5 (-10.5) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FDU -3.1 (-8.1) | 148.8 (-13.8) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FDU -3.5 (-8.5) | 150.9 (-15.9) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FDU -3.4 (-8.4) | 150.2 (-15.2) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-16 |
| Home | 8-6 | 6-8 |
| Away | 3-15 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.1 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 76.0 |
| Massey | -11.7 (#335) | -9.4 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#317) | -2.03 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.31 (#325) | -2.83 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.370 (#333) | 0.341 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.3% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 24.3% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 61.7% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.6% | 38.2% |
Game Analysis
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