Betting Lines
| Spread | BGSU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | BGSU -500 BUCK +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BGSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BGSU +5 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | BGSU -15.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (-13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BGSU -11.9 (-6.9) | 142.5 (-5.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BGSU -12.4 (-7.4) | 140.1 (-3.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BGSU -12.8 (-7.8) | 143.1 (-6.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BGSU -14.4 (-9.4) | 144.3 (-7.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BGSU | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-7 | 6-8 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#84) | -9.0 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#212) | -1.11 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#208) | -1.90 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#161) | 0.398 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BGSU | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.3% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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