Betting Lines
| Spread | ELON -26.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | APP +3500 ELON +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ELON +35 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -4.0 (-39.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.1 (-19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -2.5 (-37.5) | 149.6 (-8.6) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -4.2 (-39.2) | 148.4 (-7.4) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -4.0 (-39.0) | 147.3 (-6.3) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -3.4 (-38.4) | 147.2 (-6.2) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-8 |
| Away | 7-7 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 79.3 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#242) | -1.7 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#197) | 0.88 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#231) | 1.17 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#219) | 0.509 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 59.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 63.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.6% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.