Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | BUF -345 VMI +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +8 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -18.3 (-10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.4 (-7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -16.8 (-8.8) | 145.9 (+2.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | BUF -15.9 (-7.9) | 143.2 (+4.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | BUF -14.6 (-6.6) | 147.1 (+0.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -16.1 (-8.1) | 148.2 (-0.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 1-17 |
| Home | 7-8 | 5-9 |
| Away | 8-6 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L17 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 83.2 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#92) | -12.5 (#344) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.81 (#15) | -1.54 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.41 (#16) | -2.32 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.699 (#11) | 0.413 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 49.8% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.6% | 60.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 63.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.5% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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