Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | EVAN +4000 COFC -100000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +19 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | COFC -3.3 (-15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (-9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -1.6 (-17.4) | 139.1 (-2.1) | 48% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | COFC -2.3 (-16.7) | 139.2 (-2.2) | 43% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | COFC -1.8 (-17.2) | 139.5 (-2.5) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -1.7 (-17.3) | 141.7 (-4.7) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 14-4 |
| Home | 5-10 | 11-4 |
| Away | 1-12 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.3 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#277) | -3.1 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#249) | -1.48 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#252) | -2.01 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#241) | 0.476 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 24.7% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.9% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 62.5% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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