Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +7 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -8.2 (-15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 178.2 (-35.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -8.1 (-15.1) | 158.2 (-15.2) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -7.1 (-14.1) | 158.2 (-15.2) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -5.2 (-12.2) | 158.2 (-15.2) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -5.9 (-12.9) | 159.0 (-16.0) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 5, 2024 | TROY 84 – 74 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-3 | 11-4 |
| Away | 9-7 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#80) | -1.4 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#38) | -0.40 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#63) | -0.51 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.677 (#15) | 0.473 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 32.5% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 58.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 15.2% |
Game Analysis
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