Betting Lines
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +30 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -20.3 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.0 (+18.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -21.3 (+8.7) | 147.2 (+28.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -18.1 (+11.9) | 148.3 (+27.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -20.0 (+10.0) | 151.3 (+24.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -19.5 (+10.5) | 146.0 (+30.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 36-3 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 8-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 9-5 |
| Away | 9-1 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 11-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.2 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 84.0 |
| Massey | 16.4 (#11) | 2.3 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.59 (#1) | 0.36 (#155) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.77 (#2) | -0.56 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.735 (#3) | 0.513 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 39.6% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 38.8% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.4% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 56.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 31.4% |
Game Analysis
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