Betting Lines
| Spread | UVU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | SDST +114 UVU -118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVU +23 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | SDST -8.2 (-31.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.9 (-36.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -7.6 (-30.6) | 142.8 (-15.8) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -8.2 (-31.2) | 149.1 (-22.1) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -8.5 (-31.5) | 149.5 (-22.5) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -8.7 (-31.7) | 146.4 (-19.4) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 9-4 | 15-1 |
| Away | 4-10 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#83) | -1.7 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#88) | -0.56 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.36 (#79) | 0.14 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#91) | 0.504 (#177) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 50.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 81.8% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 34.5% |
Game Analysis
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