Betting Lines
| Spread | FIU -2.5 Away covered |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +8 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | FIU -8.2 (-16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FIU -4.0 (-12.0) | 149.6 (+2.4) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FIU -3.5 (-11.5) | 149.9 (+2.1) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FIU -5.3 (-13.3) | 152.4 (-0.4) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FIU -6.2 (-14.2) | 152.1 (-0.1) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FIU | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#219) | -4.1 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#208) | -0.28 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#191) | 0.16 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.607 (#51) | 0.437 (#273) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FIU | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 40.6% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.5 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 12.0% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 62.6% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 38.5% |
Game Analysis
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