Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | GCU -225 UTAH +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +10 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -4.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.0 (-37.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -3.6 (+6.4) | 153.8 (-27.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -2.3 (+7.7) | 151.3 (-25.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -2.3 (+7.7) | 152.2 (-26.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -3.3 (+6.7) | 155.1 (-29.1) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 2-16 |
| Home | 13-4 | 8-9 |
| Away | 6-5 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#141) | -3.0 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#282) | -0.24 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.44 (#301) | -0.66 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.410 (#305) | 0.442 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 38.6% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 32.3% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 79.5% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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